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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."